By Robert Cyran
The Texas grid failure in 2021 left millions without power. So far, record demand hasn’t crashed it this summer. Regulatory actions such as forcing plants to run more often help somewhat. The rapid growth of solar offers more durable aid.
The Energy Reliability Council of Texas runs a power grid that supplies over 25 million customers. Its job is getting harder as demand increases thanks to population growth and wild swings in temperature, including a prolonged heat wave already this summer. Moreover, Texas’ grid is largely separate from other big national ones. So Texas needs more power, especially on hot days for air conditioning. It’s being tested, as Monday’s demand hit 79 gigawatts.
To prevent a repeat of last winter, ERCOT is running the grid more conservatively. Users are paid to curtail demand earlier, while gas and coal plants are compelled to run more often. The independent market monitor for ERCOT estimated the cost at $1.5 billion this year, which customers will pay.
Building more out-of-state transmission would improve reliability but incur increased Federal oversight. That’s a nonstarter for most Texas politicians, who fear higher costs. Retail electricity averaged 13 cents per kilowatt hour in April, compared to 24 cents in New England, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Yet a lack of interconnections with other grids contributed to last year’s outages. Compelling providers to produce more often – nearly 20 times as much in 2021 as 2022 – could also backfire, by wearing out plants faster.
Increased supply, especially from ever-cheaper solar, is helping. Solar provided 6.5% of April’s electricity supply, compared to 4.6% last year. Production also peaks at midday when demand is high. Largely because of solar, the reserve margin, a figure ERCOT uses to measure its average capacity buffer compared to demand, is 23% this summer and should be 46% in 2024.
Solar doesn’t help much when it’s cloudy, or in the early evening when it’s hot. But batteries can shift power to these times, which is why utilities are installing nearly 5 gigawatts of batteries this year. While that helps grids become reliable for only a short period, rapidly falling battery prices should help solar hold Texas’ grid together better in future years.
The Energy Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the electric grid that supplies 90% of the state’s electric load, said electricity demand was a record 79 gigawatts on Monday afternoon.
The afternoon temperature in Dallas is expected to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit daily through Aug. 1, according to The Weather Channel.
